The signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail--but some don't
Description
The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction.
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
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ISBN:
9780143124009
9781101979662
9781594204111
9780143125082
9781101979662
9781594204111
9780143125082
Lexile measure:
1260L
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Grouping Information
Grouped Work ID | 767014ba-0b2e-1b6b-e9e2-e2bf2db86e1a |
---|---|
Grouping Title | signal and the noise why so many predictions fail but some don t |
Grouping Author | nate silver |
Grouping Category | book |
Grouping Language | English (eng) |
Last Grouping Update | 2024-04-27 16:42:23PM |
Last Indexed | 2024-05-01 23:26:57PM |
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Chamberlain, Mike
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Silver, Nate, 1978-
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Chamberlain, Mike
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Silver, Nate
display_description
The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction.
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
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Adult non-fiction
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9780143124009
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2012
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Penguin Audio
Penguin Press
Penguin Press
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grouped_work
subject_facet
Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Business
Electronic books
Forecasting
Forecasting -- History
Forecasting -- Methodology
History
Knowledge, Theory of
Mathematics
Nonfiction
Politics
Prognose
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Business
Electronic books
Forecasting
Forecasting -- History
Forecasting -- Methodology
History
Knowledge, Theory of
Mathematics
Nonfiction
Politics
Prognose
title_display
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't
title_full
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't / Nate Silver
The signal and the noise [electronic resource] : Why so many predictions fail but some don't. Nate Silver
The signal and the noise [electronic resource] : Why so many predictions fail but some don't. Nate Silver
title_short
The signal and the noise
title_sub
why so many predictions fail--but some don't
topic_facet
Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Business
Forecasting
History
Knowledge, Theory of
Mathematics
Methodology
Nonfiction
Politics
Prognose
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Business
Forecasting
History
Knowledge, Theory of
Mathematics
Methodology
Nonfiction
Politics
Prognose
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ils:.b35636749 | .i75395046 | On Shelf | On Shelf | false | true | true | false | false | false | 2, 4, 260, 5, 261, 6, 262, 7, 263, 8, 264, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 148, 149, 151, 152, 153, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 163, 165, 166, 167, 168, 170, 171, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180, 181, 182, 188, 189, 190, 191, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198 | ||
ils:.b35636749 | .i75167888 | On Shelf | On Shelf | false | true | true | false | false | false | 2, 4, 260, 5, 261, 6, 262, 7, 263, 8, 264, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 148, 149, 151, 152, 153, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 163, 165, 166, 167, 168, 170, 171, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180, 181, 182, 188, 189, 190, 191, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198 | ||
ils:.b35636749 | .i73601871 | On Shelf | On Shelf | false | true | true | false | false | false | 2, 4, 260, 5, 261, 6, 262, 7, 263, 8, 264, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 148, 149, 151, 152, 153, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 163, 165, 166, 167, 168, 170, 171, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180, 181, 182, 188, 189, 190, 191, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198 |